STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Harold Brown: Few examples of smooth, rapid transitions from autocratic regimes
- Brown: Process of elections, writing constitution, determining players could take years
- Egypt might evolve over years the way Iraq did, he says, without the violence
- Egypt might model its military-civilian relations on those in the U.S., Brown writes
Editor's note: Harold Brown, U.S. secretary of defense under President Carter, is trustee emeritus at the RAND Corp., a nonprofit institution whose mission is to help improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis. He also is a trustee of CSIS.
(CNN) -- More than 30 years ago, Egypt's external relations underwent seismic change -- from alliance with the Soviet Union and war with Israel to alliance with the United States and peace with Israel. Now Egypt is undergoing even more fundamental change, and the international consequences could well prove more far reaching.
Any forecast is mostly speculation, and mine, no exception, sees several potential outcomes. One is the continuation of highly authoritarian rule, perhaps less corrupt, perhaps not, by the succeeding layer of military leaders. Given the incendiary popular will already demonstrated, corrupt rule would almost certainly lead to massive violence, with a democratic end unlikely.
Or a smooth transition could take place by means of a new constitution written by a body including the military and existing parties (previously lawful and unlawful), followed by elections in six months' time, as the military leadership has just promised. Those parties would include the Muslim Brotherhood, about 20% of the population; Coptic Christians, about 5% of the population; and the rest secularist, observant Sunni Muslims, educated professionals, poor farmers and workers.
Managing the process of formalized elections and formation of a government will be taxing. Who legitimizes the constitution writers and election overseers? Who runs the country in the meantime? Some combinations of the military, a U.N. mission and the occupiers of Tahrir Square could provide the necessary legitimacy; the military would "mind the store" during such a process. The European Union and the United States could exert gentle influence through offers of economic and technical help. The U.S. relationship with the Egyptian military could lend both a supporting and restraining hand.
